Despite its image as a mecca for conservatives, the Free State has always been an ANC stronghold.
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Bloemfontein - Despite its image as a mecca for conservatives and its high concentration of white commercial farmers, the Free State has always been one of the strongest bastions in the African National Congress’s line-up of regional dominance.
In the 2011 local government elections, just over 70 percent of total votes cast (for ward candidates and in the proportional representation segment) went to the ANC. Trailing in second place was the Democratic Alliance with just under 20 percent, followed in third place by the Congress of the People with around four percent of the vote.
No other party managed to get above one percent of votes. The only exception comes in the form of the Dikwankwetla Party of South Africa with 2.06 percent, with its support base almost solely in the former Bantustan state of Qwaqwa in the Eastern Free State. In the Maluti a Phofung municipality, Dikwankwetla is the largest opposition party.
“The Free State has always been an ANC stronghold,” says Thabo Meeko, ANC provincial spokesman.
“Our support base is dynamic, covering both rural and urban areas in the province and includes black and white residents.”
Meeko says the Free State is of particular importance to the ANC, as this is the province where it was born. The party was founded in Bloemfontein’s Batho location in 1912.
“We believe if you want to kill a snake you should step on its head. Therefore if our enemies want to undermine us, they will target our historically significant and economically viable areas. When it comes to economic issues, the Free State is equally strategic. It’s right in the centre of the country, bordering five other provinces and one international country (Lesotho).
“Even though it’s only a small contributor to the country’s GDP, we believe it has huge potential for different types of investments.”
Meeko says the ANC experiences no threat from opposition parties here.
“In fact, we see the opposition in the Free State as the weakest in the country. We therefore don’t measure ourselves against our political opponents, but rather against our own service delivery targets and the challenges posed by poverty and unemployment.”
The DA’s provincial leader, Patricia Kopane, dismisses the notion of a weak opposition.
“Remember, since 1994, the DA is the only party whose election results indicates growth. For the first time we now have candidates in all wards in the Free State.
“We have shown that where we govern, we create jobs, there is proper service delivery and there is no corruption. For instance, in [the DA controlled municipality of Midvaal the unemployment rate is 12 percent, while throughout the Free State it is an average of 30 percent.”
Kopane says the ANC has a poor track record in terms of service delivery in the Free State, despite its strong roots and rich history in the province.
“People say it’s no longer the same ANC of the old days, that it doesn’t stand for the same principles anymore. Unemployment is huge and ANC councillors just waste money through corruption. The DA brings hope in this bleak landscape.
“The DA has certainly shown growth, for instance increasing its number of ward seats in the Mangaung Metro from 15 in 2006 to 26 in 2011, while the ANC has remained constant with 65 seats,” says Dr Alex Amtaika, researcher at the University of the Free State’s Department of Political Studies.
“But one must remember that Mangaung (Bloemfontein and surrounding areas) was only upgraded to a metro just before the 2011 elections, which saw its number of ward seats increase. This makes it difficult to determine whether the DA is actually gaining on the ANC.”
Amtaika agrees that the ANC’s “firm grip on the Free State” is largely due to the historical significance the province holds for the party.
“It holds a special place in the minds of ANC supporters. They know it will be a great shame to lose the place where it was born.”
Amtaika believes it is highly unlikely that the province’s two major parties will experience any significant upsets at the polls 2016.
He points out that the municipal elections are essentially the “elections of geography”. The fact that ward candidates are elected on the grounds of a clear majority, means only the candidate with the highest number of votes are elected.
This means parties need a high concentration of support in a specific ward in order to feature in its leadership.
“Supporters of the smaller parties in the province are scattered all over, which is a definite drawback. That means they can only feature in the proportional representation section. COPE (Congress of the People) for instance was visible but not impressive in the previous elections. They didn’t manage to win any wards in the Mangaung Metro, but did get three seats through proportional representation.”
These relatively poor results are despite the fact that the Free State is also COPE’s birthplace. The party had its inaugural conference in Bloemfontein in 2008.
“The Free State is a very important province to us and represents the bulk of our support,” says COPE’s spokesman Dennis Bloem. COPE Leader Mosiua Lekota is a former premier of the province, while Bloem himself hails from Kroonstad in the Northern Free State.
“We had serious infighting in 2011,” admits Bloem.
“Many wards were not contested. Yet we managed to get 29 councillors elected in the Free State. If we had contested all wards, we would undoubtedly have had more. After our 2014 conference the stability is once again there and our structures are up in all provinces. Many people who have turned their backs on us are now back.”
Bloem also believes, like the DA, that the ANC has a poor track record in municipal governance in the province. It is something they hope to capitalise on.
“Most municipalities in the province have collapsed. There is no real service delivery and infrastructure is falling apart. In Kroonstad for instance, the Serfontein and Bloemhof Dams are currently empty for the first time in their existence. This is not only because of the drought. The infrastructure has not been maintained.
“The ANC has employed its friends and family members in positions in local government and these people can’t do the work. Much of the skills and expertise in our municipalities are gone. That is why in these elections we aim to improve our performance in all municipalities in the Free State and win some of them. We also see ourselves as king makers in the municipalities where we did not win.”
Amtaika, however, thinks it will be highly unlikely that COPE will rise from the ashes of infighting and lost opportunities in the province. He believes that they may even forfeit their third place to newcomer the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
“But once again, the EFF doesn’t have a high concentration of supporters in a specific ward, which will make it difficult for them to get their candidates elected,” Amtaika said.
The provincial leadership of the EFF disagrees.
“We are contesting these elections with the aim to win municipalities,” said provincial chairman, Kgotso Morapela.
“We have support across the province with a high concentration of supporters in areas like [the former homeland of] Qwaqwa. We are also hoping to be the new local government in areas like Metsimaholo (Sasolburg), where we enjoy huge support. People are fed up with the ruling party. They want change. We believe the EFF is going to surprise many people in the Free State.”
Amtaika believes the current dissatisfaction with municipal service delivery was unlikely to have a major influence on the way people will vote. One of the reasons for this was that he believes that not all of the problems associated with service delivery can necessarily be attributed to corrupt or incompetent councillors and officials.
“Most municipalities have no tax base from which to draw revenue. The majority of residents in small towns are often poor and unemployed and simply cannot pay for services. And while I don’t want to downplay the role of corruption and poor management, it’s important to keep in mind that these are inherent problems that municipal authorities will have to deal with, even if there should be a change in government. And voters in general understand that.”
He said violent protests had often been associated with problems people had with certain individual councillors or officials and not necessarily service delivery in general.
“The ANC is therefore still likely to perform well in the province, with the DA in a strong second place. Third place will go to either the EFF or Cope.”
When it comes to the issues that need to be addressed by a government-in-waiting, most parties list job creation as a top priority. To this the ANC added that they want to lure international investors to the province, while the EFF said it wants to take a fresh look at the distribution of land, while the DA and COPE want to focus on rooting out corruption and employing skilled people in leadership positions.
But there’s one thing they all first need – a proper mandate from the Free State’s eligible voting population on August 3.
African News Agency